Is Franken really the "Front Runner" for the DFL US Senate endorsement?

This fall it's Al Franken vs. Norm Coleman -- Mike Ciresi and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer just doesn't have the support to win the DFL US Senate endorsement. That appears to be the proclamation from the legacy media based upon Survey USA's KSTP sponsored poll and the TV station's online post about the poll. According to KSTP Franken is the "front runner" But if you take some time to dig into the numbers, and know a little bit about the political process, you know that outcome is far from certain.

First, the poll was done among Republicans, Independents and Democrats. Republicans and Independent voters don't determine the DFL endorsement, Democrats do. And when you look at just the Democratic voters numbers, Al Franken pulls 79%, and Mike Ciresi 75%. That's closer than the margin of error in the poll (when you narrow the sample to just Democrats).

Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer polls just 58% among Democrats, but there are nearly twice as many undecideds (18%) as there are in matchups between Franken/Ciresi and Colman. That's not surprising since Nelson-Pallmeyer's campaign is not very well known in the general public. Adding in just half of those undecideds puts Nelson-Pallmeyer just a few percentage points behind Franken and Ciresi.

Second, it is now delegates, not voters, who are going to determine who the DFL US Senate nominee is going to be. All three candidates have agreed to abide by the endorsement, which means there's only going to be one major candidate running in the DFL primary this September. This poll was done among the general public not delegates.

The three DFL candidates are better known to the delegates than the general public. And as noted above, even among the general population of Democrats, the race is too close to call or even a three-way race.

So for KSTP to use this poll to call Franken the "front runner" is not based on fact, not based on their own poll, and takes a real stretch of the imagination... or just a lack of attention to detail to do. KSTP should stick to the facts on this one -- that is Franken does better in this poll in a head-to-head matchup with Coleman than Ciresi or Nelson-Pallmeyer do -- and leave deciding who the DFL "front runner" is to the delegates.

Video: Pro-Peace, Pro-Occupation and Confrontation at Norm Coleman's doorstep

This weekend hundreds of people marched to the State Capitol building to call for an end to the occupation in Iraq.


A much smaller group gathered for a counter-protest to support the occupation.


Later some of the peace group marchers went to US Senator Norm Coleman's home in St. Paul and found him in the ally behind the house.


He then came out and talked to the group for about 20 minutes.


The legacy media had some coverage of the events, but The UpTake's team coverage probably had the best, including the only video of the confrontation between Senator Coleman and the peace group. (Disclosure: I am also Executive Producer for The Uptake)

Together these videos provide an excellent overview of the issues and what happened on Saturday.

1. There's the face-to-face discussion with Norm Coleman at his house (3 Minutes)
2. There's an interview with Keith Ellison (3 Minutes)
   
3. And then there's coverage of the pro-occupation counter-protest (5 minutes)
   

If you like what you see, the videos are also in YouTube. Rate, comment and share them with others. It will help raise the visibility of what happened Saturday.

Still photos courtesy of Chuck Olsen, Greg Skog, Ken Avidor

Video: Al Franken Blasts Sen Norm Coleman For Lack Of Iraq Oversight

“This is Norm Coleman’s war as much as it is George Bush’s” — US Senate Candidate Al Franken.

In this video,Al Franken connects the dots between Senator Norm Coleman’s campaign contributions from defense contractor Halliburton to Coleman’s lack of oversight in the Iraq war and ultimately the deaths of US military personnel. This was shot on Wednesday as Franken stumped for support at the DFL SD 38 Family Picnic in Eagan, MN

Franken Outraises Ciresi and Coleman

If fund raising is the measure of how a candidate is doing, Al Franken wins the second quarter. He out raised both incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman and his DFL rival Mike Ciresi. Here are the initial numbers from Franken press secretary Jess McIntosh:

Total raised: $1,914,351
Avg. donation: $65.10
Total contributors (cycle to date): 36,297

By contrast Coleman raised $1.5 million and Ciresi $735,000 according to preliminary reports from their campaign

Coleman still leads in one important figure. Total cash on hand. He has nearly a $4 million war chest to wage his campaign. Franken and Ciresi who have not been fund raising as long have about $2,000,000 and $625,000 respectively.

Franken's campaign emphasized that there have been many donors and 95.7% of them under $100. There has been at least one donation from every county in Minnesota and from each of the 50 States.

In a prepared statement Franken Communications Director Andy Barr said "We made a conscious decision early on to rely on grassroots support to fund our campaign. Today, we've shown that when people come together, they can be even more powerful than the special interests and corporate PACs backing Norm Coleman. And we've shown that Al is a candidate who can bring people together around the progressive values we share."

Other notes about the fund raising from the Franken campaign:
• The average contribution to the campaign in the second quarter was $65.10.
• Nearly 2,000 people who contributed to the campaign in the first quarter, or nearly 20%, made another contribution in the second quarter.
• The campaign received only $5,500 from PACs in the second quarter, including $5,000 from Sen. Dick Durbin's (D-Ill.) Prairie PAC and $500 from GMP Political Education League, the PAC of the Glass, Molders, Pottery, Plastics, & Allied Workers International Union. In the first quarter, Al received just $15,000 from PACs (including $5,000 from his own Midwest Values PAC), while Sen. Coleman received nearly a third of his total ($450,000) from PACs.