Franken wins big in Eagan/Burnsville

US Senate Candidate Al Franken won the lion's share of delegates at this Saturday's SD 38 DFL Convention. Subcaucuses that named Franken as a candidate were awarded 10 of SD 38's 17 state delegates. Subcauses that named the other two candidates in the race Mike Ciresi and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer were awarded 1 delegate each. The remaining five delegates were awarded to subcaucuses that were uncommitted (3) or named a presidential candidate (Clinton-1, Obama-1.)

Here is the list of subcaucuses, the number of votes each one got and the resulting number of state delegates.

Subcaucus	Votes	State Delegates
Uncommitted, Environment, Education	55	3
Franken, Health Care, Veterans	39	2
Franken, Obamaesque Issues	31	2
Franken, Education	23	2
Obama, End The War	21	1
Ciresi Victory '08	19	1
Clinton, Climate Change, Care	19	1
Franken, First Timers	18	1
Franken, Energy & Environment	18	1
Franken, Labor	18	1
Franken, Peace, Domestic Partnership	18	1
Nelson Pallmeyer, Stop Global Warming	18	1

Disclosure: I was a delegate to the SD 38 Convention and was in the "uncommitted" caucus.

Is Franken really the "Front Runner" for the DFL US Senate endorsement?

This fall it's Al Franken vs. Norm Coleman -- Mike Ciresi and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer just doesn't have the support to win the DFL US Senate endorsement. That appears to be the proclamation from the legacy media based upon Survey USA's KSTP sponsored poll and the TV station's online post about the poll. According to KSTP Franken is the "front runner" But if you take some time to dig into the numbers, and know a little bit about the political process, you know that outcome is far from certain.

First, the poll was done among Republicans, Independents and Democrats. Republicans and Independent voters don't determine the DFL endorsement, Democrats do. And when you look at just the Democratic voters numbers, Al Franken pulls 79%, and Mike Ciresi 75%. That's closer than the margin of error in the poll (when you narrow the sample to just Democrats).

Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer polls just 58% among Democrats, but there are nearly twice as many undecideds (18%) as there are in matchups between Franken/Ciresi and Colman. That's not surprising since Nelson-Pallmeyer's campaign is not very well known in the general public. Adding in just half of those undecideds puts Nelson-Pallmeyer just a few percentage points behind Franken and Ciresi.

Second, it is now delegates, not voters, who are going to determine who the DFL US Senate nominee is going to be. All three candidates have agreed to abide by the endorsement, which means there's only going to be one major candidate running in the DFL primary this September. This poll was done among the general public not delegates.

The three DFL candidates are better known to the delegates than the general public. And as noted above, even among the general population of Democrats, the race is too close to call or even a three-way race.

So for KSTP to use this poll to call Franken the "front runner" is not based on fact, not based on their own poll, and takes a real stretch of the imagination... or just a lack of attention to detail to do. KSTP should stick to the facts on this one -- that is Franken does better in this poll in a head-to-head matchup with Coleman than Ciresi or Nelson-Pallmeyer do -- and leave deciding who the DFL "front runner" is to the delegates.

Watch The UpTake-O-Meter Measure The DFL U.S. Senate Debate

Also posted at TheUpTake.org
Probably the most significant aspect of Tuesday's US Senate DFL debate at Minneapolis Roosevelt High School was not the candidates, but the audience. With the election still nearly a year away, the debate drew enough people to fill the auditorium's lower level. A good portion of those in the audience were there to back Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. His campaign volunteers and supporters had packed the auditorium.

Nelson-Pallmeyer does not have as much name recognition or money as Mike Ciresi and Al Franken. But he is apparently strongly organized in Minneapolis where he unsuccessfully ran for the 5th Congressional District DFL endorsement in 2006.

By now, if you've watched a couple of DFL U.S. Senate debates you can recite the candidate's stump speeches from memory. For those who want substance on last Tuesday's debate please check out an excellent text summary from DJ at www.idonthateamerica.com

If you want style, we give you something different. A few quick jokes from moderator and DFL State Chair Brian Melendez and then The UpTake-O-Meter (patent pending) on the response each candidate got when introduced to a crowd of about 700 people.



This is Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer's backyard and "Back Jack Pack" which jammed the auditorium let everyone know that.
Video: Greg Skog Text, editing and photos: Michael McIntee